Making a mockery

If you want an idea of who the Colts will draft, get to know the team first.

This is when it gets interesting. Contracts are being restructured,1 college kids are being examined and free agents are being wooed. Forget the games, to us wannabe GMs, this is football.

And like all personnel geeks, I am a self-appointed soothsayer who likes to believe he can predict the future, as long as accountability is not a big part of the equation.2 So before the combine, before teams are allowed to start negotiating with other teams' free agents, I'm going to predict what will happen in Indy. Feel free to clip and save.3

First, let's look at the Colts' weaknesses in 2003. In approximate order, they were: a) an inability to stop the run, particularly inside, b) a lack of a consistent pass-rush other than that provided by Dwight Freeney, c) generally poor play from all their cornerbacks, including a dearth of interceptions, d) a less-than-impressive ability to convert third-and-short situations, e) feeble punt returns, and f) a paucity of long running plays.

Now let's look at what caused these problems: a) a lack of size and talent on the defensive line, particulary the tackles, b) no real pass-rushers on the roster other than Freeney and rookie spot-player Robert Mathis,4 c) seriously flawed players at the position, d) injuries to running backs Edgerrin James, Dominic Rhodes and James Mungro and a reluctance to use a fullback until late in the season, e) no authentic punt returners on the roster, and f) injuries at running back.

Okay, now let's look at how the Colts could solve these problems: a) acquire bigger, better defensive linemen, b) acquire bigger, better defensive linemen, c) acquire better cornerbacks, d) hope the backs are healed, employ a fullback more often and game-plan better, e) get a punt returner, and f) hope it doesn't happen again.5

So the Colts need a bunch of defensive linemen — both inside and out — a passel of cornerbacks6 and a guy who can scare other teams when he brings back punts. And, as always, the team could use some offensive-line prospects and a few special-teams types who can maybe develop at any position.

Here's where the mitigating factors come in. Before the Colts acquire anyone, they will lose some. Let's look at the guys who pull in a bit more cash and cap room than their performance would merit. Without taking too much time for speeches, let's say good-bye to offensive lineman Adam Meadows, defensive lineman Chad Bratzke, cornerback Walt Harris and quarterback Brock Huard. Okay, Huard will probably be back at a reduced rate and a lower-priced Harris may have a few tackles left in him, but I think you can safely count the others out for 2004.

Then there's the matter of free agents. I think it's safe to assume the Colts can keep all their restricted free agents and, for the sake of argument, let's say they invite them all back.7 The unrestricted free agents are another story, they may not be able to keep them all. I don't think anyone doubts that quarterback Peyton Manning will stay in Indianapolis, but linebacker Marcus Washington — like him or not — will get some interest and may sign elsewhere. The other unrestricted free agents are all replacable at reasonable prices, although I'm sure the Colts would like to retain cornerback David Macklin,8 at least for a part-time role.

So once the Manning situation is cleared up, the Colts are really only worried about losing Washington and Macklin and they can probably clear both up without much hub-bub.9

But free agency gives as it takes away. If Washington stays, the Colts have two major needs — defensive linemen and cornerbacks. I think Colts president and de facto GM Bill Polian is too smart to enter the high-stakes game that has become the free-agent defensive lineman market.10 Every year, a group of these guys gets way richer than they deserve and almost none of them produce as promised. This year's crop includes two household names — oft-injured Jevon Kearse and over-the-hill, mentally unstable Warren Sapp — and the Colts can't dream of affording either of them anyway. Grant Wistrom is a nice player who fits the system, but he's going to carry a top-shelf pricetag as well. Other than those three, the defensive linemen available are generally mongrels11 who'll command big money anyway.

Conversely, there are so many quality cornerbacks available in free agency that there's no way to support any kind of price structure. Jeez, even before the cap casualties come,12 I can name at least a dozen unrestricted free agent cornerbacks better than what the Colts have. Oh, be assured that they will be priced out of the Champ Bailey/Chris McAlister class, but that doesn't meant they can't afford a Shawn Springs or an Ahmed Plummer. There are no guarantees when it comes to offseason moves, but you can rest assured that Polian will make amends with his coaches by supplying them with at least one NFL starting quality cornerback. That would be something of a novelty in Indianapolis.13

Besides, experience has taught us that rookie defensive linemen frequently dominate while rookie cornerbacks generally either sit or get burned.14

So we've worked out a reasonable scenario. In this scheme, the Colts have cleared cap room with the recent restructuring and the impending releases of Meadows, Bratzke, Harris and Huard. They re-sign all of their restricted free agents, re-sign all their necessary unrestricted free agents (Manning, Washington), re-sign or replace all the less necessary but still desirable ones (Macklin, linebacker Jim Nelson) and bring back Huard with a much more cap-friendly contract. The extra cap space also allows the Colts to grab a veteran starting cornerback.

Which brings us to the draft. The Colts enter with a desperate need for defensive linemen, more defensive backs, a punt returner and depth all over the place.15 Before we start picking players on the Colts' behalf, there are a few things to keep in mind about the Colts and the draft:

• Although much is made of Polian's habit of drafting small-school guys, he rarely drafts them high, unless they are extremely special.16

• The Colts tend to draft high-character guys, especially early. There may be no player in the draft more suited to the Colts than Florida State defensive tackle Darnell Dockett,17 but his off-field indiscretions would probably scare them off unless he fell a long way down.

• Although measurables are important, the Colts value college production way more.

• Players coming off poor senior years draw Polian's eye if they had big junior years, as do players who did nothing until their senior year.

• More than any team other than the Giants, the Colts prize high Wonderlic scores and academic success.

• The Colts are not afraid to move up or down in the draft.

• Fitting the system is of utmost importance.

• Polian has a habit of clearing out positions he intends to draft. Keep in mind that of the Colts' top four cornerbacks at the end of the season, three are free agents and one is likely to be cut.18

• The Colts have a habit of drafting at least one combine surprise, like a 275-pound guard who lifts the weight room or a linebacker who runs the shuttles like a cornerback.

Now we're armed to make a reasonable mock draft. The Colts have a pick near the end of each round except the fourth (they sent the pick to Houston last season for the right to select Mathis19) and the sixth (that one went to Tampa Bay for the then-necessary but now long forgotten safety David Gibson). They also have an extra seventh-round pick from St. Louis for safety Rich Coady.

Round 1/Pick 29 Chad Lavalais DT Louisiana State 6'3 292 4.90 Lots of people are saying the Colts could draft Lavalais later, but after the Senior Bowl, I doubt it. A hustler with a great motor, he reminds me of a taller Steve Emtman without Emtman's stiffness. He's not overly big, but is so productive and so smart, he's hard to resist. He gets penetration, makes tackles all over the field and makes his teammates look better.

Round 2/Pick 59 Jason Babin DE Western Michigan 6'4 276 4.70 Babin is that rare small-school prospect who's ready for the NFL, at least as a rotational player. I kept rewinding my Shrine Game tape in order to watch this guy, he's just uncanny once he's beaten his man. And unlike other first-step pass-rush types, he has the size and ability to do more than just speed-rush.

Round 3/Pick 90 Bruce Thornton CB Georgia 5'10 187 4.34 Lots of people don't like Thornton, but I do. He packs a wallop at the line of scrimmage, is unbelievably fluid and, as a former running back, he can catch and can do some damage if he gets his hands on the ball. Not a bad blitzer either. Could be a huge steal.

Round 5/Pick 156 Shawn Johnson DE Delaware 6'5 260 4.85 He's all about burst and pass-rush technique. He has good pass/run recognition and the only flaws in his game can be coached away.

Round 7/Pick 218 Roc Alexander CB Washington 5'10 186 4.33 Maybe the fastest player in the draft, Alexander has good coverage skills but has been held back by injuries and the fact that he's so much faster than his opponents. He could also bring back punts.

Round 7/Pick 219 Brad Lekkekerker OT Cal-Davis 6'6 350 5.40 Another smallish-school prospect, Lekkekerker has size, strength and technique. The only problem is that he has a problem matching up when speed rushers take the circle route around him. Simple solution: bring him inside and make him a guard.

Honorable mention: Tim Anderson DT Ohio State, Nate Lawrie TE Yale, Greg Brooks CB Southern Mississippi, Terry Johnson DT Washington, Jorge Cordova ILB Nevada, Steve Baggs OLB Bethune-Cookman, Marcel Allmond CB USC, Kurt Sigler T eastern Washington, Sean Mulcahy DT UConn, Mike Wilson T California, DD Achonolu OLB Washington, Tony Bua S Arkansas.

Notes

1 So far, Brandon Stokely, Brad Scioli, Mike Vanderjagt, Marcus Pollard, Montae Reagor, Tarik Glenn and Jeff Saturday have restructured. Bet that none gets cut.

2 I'm not too worried, though. I don't hit that often, just more often than most guys. It's all relative.

3 Feel free to mock me later.

4 As long as he stays healthy and doesn't try to play linebacker, this kid has a nice future.

5 It can't, can it?

6 The wild cards here are Donald Strickland and Joseph Jefferson. Some people think Jefferson can start, but I don't see it. Even if both Strickland and Jefferson play up to potential, neither represents the shut-down guy the Colts desperately need..

7 Rick DeMulling, Ryan Diem and Dominic Rhodes are vital, Nick Harper and Cory Bird would be nice and Joe Dean Davenport should be back.

8 Former fan scratching post Macklin really came on in the nickel role last season and deserves a invitation to return.

9 And even both of them are eminently replacable.

10 Polian has wisely stayed out of the fray. He wisely stole Chad Bratzke from the Giants and signed Montae Reagor from the Broncos for relative peanuts..

11 Don't tell me guys like Fred Robbins and Corny Griffin impress you.

12 I hear the Dolphins are going to cut Sam Madison.

13 Okay, aside from Ray Buchanan, who has played cornerback well in Indianapolis? At least for the home team.

14 Maybe I'm generalizing, but it seems to me that defensive backs usually need a longer time to adjust to the NFL than defensive linemen do.

15 Once you pass the fourth round, you're shooting craps. Just grab the best guy you can, no matter what position he plays. You never know when you might buy a winning lottery ticket.

16 By his definition, though. He really, really loved Tyrone Poole back in '95 when few others did. Well, ten seasons later poole was starting (and starring) for the Super Bowl champs.

17 this guy lives in opponents' backfields.

18 Although many believe in Strickland and Jefferson, both of whom are under contract.

19 A wise trade I think. Mathis had just 3.5 sacks last year, but looks very promising