Mock me gently

The season ended for my favorite team yesterday, so naturally my thoughts have turned to the draft.

I love looking at other people's mock drafts, they always give me a bit of insight into the psyches of their makers. There are good ones and bad ones, but the vast majority are like my own — good enough so that you can convince people you kind of know what you're talking about, but not good enough so that anybody cares. Still, the same revealing mistakes show through so often that if you're thinking of making a mock and would prefer not to be mocked, you'd be wise to try something else.

The most obvious mistake is one that usually affects younger mock-makers — I call it the magic prospect syndrome, in honor of the tenacity and tunnel vision of JFK conspiracy theorists. As Oswald's1 (or whoever's) bullet managed to hit the President, the Governor of Texas and perhaps a dozen or so bystanders, the guy considered to be the perfect prospect of many mock makers seem to fall supernaturally through the cracks all the way down to their favorite team. It's a fairly natural impulse. People who like the draft are usually rabid fans, and all football fans have a favorite team.2

It's the opposite of baseball, in which the player and the game itself often transcend the concept of team. Football fans are, as Jerry Seinfeld3 astutely put it, cheering for the shirt, not the guy in it. Fans know their team, they study their team, they know their team's weaknesses and, if they make mock drafts, probably have a plan to fix them.

The problem lies in the fact that there are 31 other teams in the league — and many of them probably want your guy too. I think I saw about a thousand mocks last year and would guess that at least 900 of them had the maker's favorite team selecting Oklahoma State defensive tackle Kevin Williams,4 Georgia defensive tackle Johnathan Sullivan (fans always, always, always think their team needs help at defensive tackle) or USC safety Troy Polamalu5 no matter where the team was actually selecting.

Just as frequently, you'll see a mock maker decide a player is a perfect fit for a team and place him there no matter how many times they adjust what the other teams do. It's almost like they believe that the other teams understand how perfect this player is for the situation and act accordingly — "I know we have a hole at outside linebacker, Lenny, but wouldn't Nick Barnett6 look great with Tampa? We shouldn't stand in the way of such a perfect fit as that."

But at least those guys are trying. Too often you can tell that the mock maker simply doesn't know much about, or care about, a certain team or set of teams.7 Granted, it's hard to follow the trials and tribulations of all 32 teams, let alone attempt to understand their master plan (or lack of one, in Arizona's case) and philosophy, but if you're making a mock draft, you can do better than glance at the stats sheet.

A perfect example of this is something I read the other day and actually urged me to write this column. A guy (I won't out him here8) posted a mock the other day that had the Giants selecting Miami safety Sean Taylor with the No. 4 pick. It's not the worst pick in the world, certainly not out of the question, but what rankled was the guy's take on the Giants. He listed offensive tackle as tied for fourth with wide receiver9 as the team's most pressing need, didn't mention guard at all and said the secondary was lacking talent.

It sounds more like he's describing the San Francisco Giants.

Look at the Giants' defensive backs. The starting corners are Will Allen and Will Peterson, both were recent first-round picks, both are improving and pretty much any team would kiss a pig to get either. Their strong safety is Shaun Williams, another first rounder and a fine young player. Yes, they are limping along with elderly, slow-even-when-he-was-young Omar Stoutmire at free safety, but they could do worse and are kind of high on prospect Ryan Clark.10 I'm not saying they couldn't use improvement in the secondary, just that it's hardly a crisis spot. Besides, free safety is comparatively a plug-and-play position and this year's crop of free agents is particularly rich.11

Compare that relatively enviable secondary to the Giants' hideous offensive line. It features one good player, Luke Petitgout,12 who's playing out of position at left tackle; a decent youngster in '03 fifth-rounder David Diehl13 and an okay but underathletic jack-of-all-positions in Chris Bober. And Bober is an unrestricted free agent.14

But if you glance at the stats from last season, the defensive backs were just as bad as the offensive line. That's because football is a complicated game.

Between them, starting defensive backs Allen, Peterson and Williams missed 21 games due to injury in 2003. And — despite the stats inflated by the fact that the Giants rarely had the ball and when they did they were generally playing catch-up — they actually had a pretty hard defense to run against.15

Compare that to the line's play, which was just one step above being an indictable offense. The stats don't tell the story because the Giants were blessed with a miracle-worker in offensive-line coach Jim McNally, an agile and adaptable offensive mind in head coach Jim Fassel16 and smart skill-position players who bailed out the linemen's ineptitude on numerous occasions. To get a real idea of how bad the Giants' line was, watch what happened after quarterback Kerry Collins went down — on a play in which two offensive linemen totally whiffed on their blocks and were also guilty of an offensive penalty. Now Collins is no Dan Marino when it comes to having a quick release, but hes a veteran who knows what he's doing back there. His replacement, young Jesse Palmer,17 was thrown into the shark pool and no amount of coaching could hide how poorly he could operate without adequate protection. He was sacked on his first play, again four plays later (fumbling the ball), again five plays later and again four snaps after that. And that was against a talent-poor, barely coached Redskins defense.

But I digress. This isn't about the Giants' needs, it's about paying attention and not deciding what a team will do based solely on stats.

And you also have to understand what the team is trying to accomplish. You can't put an undersized penetrating defensive tackle like, say, Montae Reagor on a 3-4 team, nor would a quick-hit, trap-style offense like Denver's have any use for a behemoth lineman like Leonard Davis.

I was once guilty of the same crime in 2001 when I predicted the Colts would draft Auburn halfback Rudi Johnson in the fourth round. Johnson turned out to be a pretty good back, and I could have said "looky there, I know my prospects," but I know he never would have worked out in Indy. He catches the ball like it was on fire, is not a natural blitz nullifier18 and has a running style that doesn't match the team's playbook.19

Even if you take all that into account, you still have to presuppose that a team will do the logical thing, and that's not always the case. Take, for example, last year. The Cardinals were picking sixth and had a crying need for anybody who could get within earshot of opposing quarterbacks. Fortuitously, Terrell Suggs had just set the NCAA single-season sack record, fit well at either defensive end or outside linebacker in the Cards' relatively simple defensive scheme and even went to Arizona State for crying out loud.

But the Cards being the Cards, they traded down and drafted Penn State wide receiver Bryant Johnson (who I'll admit I also really liked until I saw his drop two easy ones in the Senior Bowl) and little-known and less-loved Wake Forest defensive end Calvin Pace.

Annoyed, Suggs led the star-encrusted Ravens' defense with 12 sacks, six forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries and took virtually everyone's vote as top rookie defender. Johnson was promising, but inconsistent and slippery-fingered.20 Worse yet, the Cardinals' pass-rush continued to move with the confidence and alacrity of a line at the DMV, recording just 21 sacks, the same total as the year before. Of that total, just 10 came from the line and only one from Pace, who also failed to force a fumble, despite starting all 16 games.21

The only lesson from this? Sometimes teams do stupid things and stupid is unpredictable.

And sometimes even smart moves are seen as stupid when they just hadn't been predicted by the experts (and not just the self-appointed ones, either). I won't drone on about the Edgerrin James/Ricky Williams22 situation again.

Instead, I'll take you back to April 2002 when the Bengals announced the selection of Arizona State offensive tackle Levi Jones. If you were there, you'd remember that you couldn't hear Paul Tagliabue say the pick's last name. By the time he'd finished saying "Levi," the crowd was jeering, booing and laughing so loudly that it drowned the commissioner out. Immediately, a chant of "same old Bengals!" erupted.

Looking back, I'm glad I'm not one of them.23 In just two seasons, Jones has developed into one of the league's best at a very demanding and expensive position. It's too early to tell, but of the first-rounders that year, only David Carr (the No. 1 pick), Julius Peppers (the No. 2, and he's already hit a wall24), Roy Williams, Dwight Freeney, Jeremy Shockey and perhaps Ed Reed are better players than Jones. All but Carr play positions where the transition from college to pro is easier than left tackle, and Freeney, Shockey and Reed were drafted after Jones.

Even those brave few who admit that Jones is a great player temper their embarrassment by saying that the Bengals could have traded down to draft him later, getting another pick or two and saving on the signing bonus. According to who? Common consensus among draft predictors? Aren't these the same guys who told us Ron Dayne, currently the Giants' fifth-string halfback, was a sure thing and that guys like Raheem Brock and Rick DeMulling were hardly worth drafting at all?

And I'd like to go on record as saying I'm far from immune. I was totally sold on Rien Long25 last year and didn't see the Freeney-to-Indy thing coming at all.26

The simple fact is that nobody knows. And it's not just some guy in his parents' basement typing in almost random names, it's all of us. I don't want to single them out because they are a very reputable source of information, but I took a look at Redeyesports.com's 2003 mock draft. It was compiled a few days before the draft and although they are a pretty trustworthy and professional crew, they didn't do all that well. They correctly predicted six of 32 first rounders (a .188 batting average) and exactly none of the second rounders (bringing them down to .094). So you can imagine how accurate some independent guy's seven rounder in January will be.

All that does is puts the whole thing in perspective. We're all wrong, but we're all having fun. So make your mocks, and I'll make mine. We can disagree and argue, but let's just agree not to take it seriously.

Notes

1 Oliver Stone be damned, Oswald did it. All by himself.

2 An amazing number of draft fans seem to be affliated with old-skool teams like the Steelers, Giants and Eagles. You never see a Panthers-oriented draft site.

3 Watching reruns of Seinfeld reminds me of how much I miss New York in the 90s. If you've ever wondered, yes, it's absolutely accurate. I like Larry David's Curb Your Enthusiasm, but it's not the same. It's hard for me to identify with the problems of a neurotic multimillionaire in L.A.

4 I know, I know, he played end as a rookie, but: a) he played mostly tackle in college, b) most teams projected him at tackle and c) the Vikings are planning to move him inside for 2004.

5 Y'know I'm still not sold on this guy. He did play better late in his rookie season, but is still nowhere near Mike Doss or Ken Hamelin. Just too undisciplined in coverage, too excited about making the big hit. Jer no like.

6 Not realizing David Thornton would be as good as he was and fearing a Marcus Washington defection, I really thought the Colts could have used him. Until I realized he was going to go in the first round.

7 Back before the Colts were popular, mock makers would simply give them the top defender on their list, regardless of position or quality. It was, frankly, hilarious.

8 I have half a mind to, though, because he bills himself as a Colts fan and I've never heard of him. Besides, we're supposed to be smarter than that.

9 Behind fullback (fullback?). What is this, 1976?

10 He's no Kenny Easley, but he'll do. Clark's not fast, but has great instincts against the pass and is a good hitter.

11 Deon Grant would work well in the Meadowlands, as would Keion Carpenter or Anthony Dorsett.

12 The guy's a right tackle (or even a guard) through and through. A bit of a turnstile at left tackle, though.

13 2003 rookie Wayne Lucier's not entirely bad either, but I see his future as a swing inside backup.

14 And unlikley to return after the way the Giants treated him.

15 Opponents ran and ran and ran against the Giants — largely because the Giants couldn't score — but they still averaged just 3.8 yards agaisnt, as opposed to the NFL average of 4.3.

16 I have no idea why he's unemployed. Fassel is a good coach, a great motivator and a guy who knows how to handle the media, he deserves a job.

17 He seems like a bit of a dunce actually.

18 Any back on a team with Peyton Manning better know how to stop the blitz.

19 Herein lies a common problem. If your top back is Edgerrin James, who is a very distinctive type of back, and your No. 2 is Johnson, who is a very different kind of back, how do they coexist? Do you change the playbook when Johnson steps in? Or do you make Johnson try to run plays designed for James? Either way, you're not using your No. 2 guy effectively and over-complicating your offense.

20 Johnson has some nice attributes. He has excellent size, speed and moves. But, to me, the job of a receiver is to catch the ball. Most good wideouts catch 65-75 percent of passes thrown their way. Johnson caught 45.5 as a rookie. Luckily, the Cards stumbled upon the great Anquan Boldin in the second round. His phenomenal success took the pressure off the team's two mediocre first rounders.

21 I kinda feel sorry for Pace, who will always be compared to Suggs by teeth-gritting Cards fans. Still, he has a future and should develop into an okay starter.

22 Unless you ask.

23 But I wouldn't be anyway. I attend the draft when I can, but never shout or dance or wear funny costumes. In fact, I generally wear a suit and have twice been mistaken for an agent while I was there. Still, that wasn't anywhere near as satisfying as being mistaken for a pitching prospect while covering the Expos for a Canadian magazine.

24 He totally has. With all that talent, he's been unwilling to learn any new moves and has been largely neutralized by smart tackles. Should he smarten up and realize the NFL is bigger than him, you'll see him improve dramatically.

25 Truly a marginal player at this point and I don't see anything that'll change that.

26 Like most people I saw Freeney going to the Bears at the end of round one. One guy I know, who is otherwise an excellent source, predicted Freeney to go in the fourth round. In my defense, however, in my first mock that year I had the Colts trading down and grabbing both Freeney and Larry Tripplett in the first. Call me Nostradamus. Or not. I later had them drafting Jon Henderson. I really thought the fears generated by his back injuries would drive him down to No. 15. But still, Freeney is a much better player.