Let's get realistic. Most of us had no idea the team was in the financial straits that it is. It's not that the Colts lack salary-cap space, just that ownership would have a hard time coming up with the kind of signing bonus necessary to sign a front-line free agent. I mean Jimmy Irsay had to liquidate some of his personal assets to pony up enough green to keep Peyton Manning. It's one thing to sell the wife's diamonds to pay Peyton Manning, another to sign a Bobby Taylor or Troy Vincent.

So, let's assume that the Colts will acquire no meaningful free agents other than the restricted free agents they have already tendered. With that in mind, here's one guy's opinion of how the Colts could approach the draft.
Position Starter(s) Backups
Quarterback Peyton Manning Cory Sauter, Tom Arth
Analysis: The belief in Coltland has always been that if Manning were to go down for a long term, the season would be scrapped. But if he were out for only a short period, the Colts could get by with a caretaker backup. For the past couple of years Brock Huard was kept on hand just in case, but when he became too expensive, he was let go. Taking his place is his former understudy Sauter, a prospect who has been with almost as many NFL teams as he has completed NFL passes. Still, Sauter has a rep as a pretty smart guy and probably isn't a bad choice to keep house and home together while Manning rehabs, should the need arise. The No. 3 role is almost certainly in the hands of small-college star Arth. Arth has all the requisite tools and was a small-school phenomenon, but lacks big-time experience. He was sent to Scotland to compete in the NFL Europe, and is beginning to get playing time as the Claymores have been pathetic on offense.
Draft strategy: It's unlikely the Colts will draft a quarterback because they have a young talent in Arth, but they might be looking for experience. So you can expect them to sign or trade for a low-cost veteran after the draft. It wouldn't be surprising if they brought Huard back.
Fullback Tom Lopienski
Analysis: The Colts have rarely played with a fullback since Edgerrin James' arrival in 1999, but the emergence of Lopienski as a blocker and receiver has forced them to re-think. The fullback will never be a huge part of the offense, but will no longer be virtually absent.
Draft strategy: The fullback job is defined by Lopienski, so it's a safe bet the team won't spend much in the way of draft picks to compete with him. An undrafted free agent like McNeese State's Luke Lawton will probably be signed to see what he can do on special teams.
Halfback Edgerrin James Dominic Rhodes, James Mungro, Brian Allen
Analysis: James appears to be healed from his ACL injuries and the other ailments it indirectly caused. That's not to say James is as good as he was before the tear, just that he's no longer rehabbing. Though maybe not exactly what he was before, James is still a premier back who can win games all by himself. Behind him is another knee-ligament-tear returnee — restricted free agent Rhodes. He can't quite carry a team, but certainly doesn't hurt it when he needs to start and provides a dangerous weapon as a role player. Mungro is a tough runner and blocker who lacks wheels, while Allen is a speedy young back who needs to prove he can hold onto the ball and find cutback lanes. Rhodes is also an excellent kick returner and Allen has potential there too.
Draft strategy: Although there's a ton of speculation that the Colts will be looking at James' replacement in this draft, I disagree. The Colts may draft a back for depth, but you don't replace a guy like James easily and with the window for Super Bowl contention closing, the Colts would be wiser to address more pressing needs at linebacker and cornerback instead. Besides, this is not a real great year for backs. It wouldn't be out of the question for the Colts to draft a pass-catching back like Oklahoma's Renaldo Works in the middle rounds, but a more probable course of action could see the Colts acquiring a late-rounder or undrafted guy like Northwestern's Jason Wright.
Wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne Brandon Stokely, Troy Walters, Aaron Moorehead, Brad Pyatt, DeAndrew Rubin
Analysis: The Colts would appear to be set at wideout, but there are mitigating factors. Harrison is in his contract year (although he's almost certain to re-sign), Stokely is due for a huge raise in 2005 and could become an offseason cap casualty. Walters has suspect hands, a penchant for fumbling and, despite all his speed, a dearth of big plays on his resume. Moorehead played well in flashes last season, but is unproven. Pyatt is an outstanding kick returner, but is coming off a frightening neck injury and is very far from helping regularly from the line of scrimmage. And Rubin? Well, he hasn't done anything yet and hasn't really impressed in Europe this spring.
Draft strategy: The Colts are happy with their wide receivers for 2004, but could spend a draft choice with an eye towards 2005. The Colts have looked at two small-school stars in Mount Union's Randell Knapp (69-1467-16 receiving, 5-69-1 rushing) and Carroll's Mark Gallik (96-1716-16 receiving), and may spend a late draft pick on one or the other.
Tight end Marcus Pollard, Dallas Clark Chad Bartoszek, Bryan Fletcher, Justin Snow
Analysis: There's no problem with Pollard or Clark, but there's almost no depth at the position. Bartoszek has size and some potential, but is a small-school project and a marginal athlete. Fletcher was a good college pass-catching H-back, but blocks like big wide receiver and has a reputation as not the toughest guy in the world. He's currently on injured reserve in Europe. Snow is a tight end in name only and may have a hard time holding on to his long-snapping position.
Draft strategy: The Colts would like to get another tight end, especially if he can block. They may spend a draft pick on an all-around guy like Virginia Tech's Keith Willis, but his stock is rising rapidly. Marshall's big Jason Rader is an intriguing option late. Should the draft not yeild a good prospect, the team may bring back last year's No. 3, Joe Dean "Billy Bob" Davenport.
Offensive tackle Tarik Glenn, Ryan Diem Makoa Frietas, Jim Newton
Analysis: For years, the bookend tackles of Glenn and Adam Meadows was a given. But last year, the monstrous Diem supplanted Meadows. And, when Glenn missed a few games, it was sixth-round and once-cut rookie Frietas who stepped in and did surprisingly well. Meadows, naturally, is now gone. Glenn is still among the league's best. Diem's a restricted free agent, but will likely re-sign. Frietas is no threat to start is isn't the worst guy to have at No. 3. Newton is a raw project, but you always have to give a 6'10 guy a shot.
Draft strategy: I don't see the Colts investing in a tackle unless Diem slips away or they want to bring one inside like they did with Steve Sciullo last year. A late pick or unsigned free agent like Troy State's quick-footed Branden Hall would be a nice project.
Offensive guard Rick DeMulling, Steve Sciullo Tupe Peko, Rex Richards
Analysis: The Colts are very happy with DeMulling, although he too is a restricted free agent, and are crossing their fingers that Sciullo is the training-camp mauler and not the rookie who hit the wall late in the 2003 season. When Sciullo went down last year — as much for inconsistent play as injury — Peko stepped in a played well. He's a great insurance policy. Richards was one of my favorite prospects in 2003. He's as strong as an ox, but about as refined as one too.
Draft strategy: Unless DeMulling somehow escapes, the Colts probably won't invest in the guard market. A late pick or undrafted free agent like North Carolina's Juniper Wilson, a solid citizen and a decent project.
Center Jeff Saturday Joe Iorio
Analysis: Observers complain about Saturday's size and strength, but he's one of the most effective centers in the NFL and can also play guard at a high level. Although Peko has a longshot chance to start at guard, he's also the primary backup at center. Iorio is a smart technician type, whose best shot to make the team is to take Snow's long-snapping job from him.
Draft strategy: The Colts are always looking for offensive-line depth, but seems set at center with Saturday and Peko. A late-rounder or undrafted free agent like Virginia's versatile Kevin Bailey could be worth a shot.
Defensive end Dwight Freeney, Raheem Brock Brad Scioli, Robert Mathis, Keith Wright, Durrand Roundtree
Analysis: Freeney is a star and well deserves the status. His supporting cast has been flawed at best, though. Brock is quick and athletic, but is undersized and can often be handled. He gets a lot of pressure, but really needs to learn to close and convert those near-misses to sacks. Scioli started in 2002 and got seven sacks (although five were against one very green Texans tackle), but was invisible in 2003. The Colts hope that lack of production was related to a now-healed shoulder injury. The wild cards here are Mathis and Wright. Mathis is a phenomenally talented pass-rusher who is just 6'0 and 235 pounds. Naturally, he needs to be spotted, he could become the next Leonard Little or just another guy. Wright is an explosive player who's been miscast as a plugger inside for all of his career and may get a chance to fill Chad Bratzke's old tweener end/tackle role. He was very productive in college because of his explosive first step and could find success in a rotational role. Roundtree is an athlete who needs to prove in Europe that he deserves a roster spot.
Draft strategy: Although Polian has never been one to pass up any available pass-rusher, I don't see the Colts drafting an end high unless a major talent like Alabama's Antwan Odom falls way below expectations. Still, an impact guy like Texas' injury-prone Kalen Thornton, Hawaii's skinny Travis LaBoy or Florida's crybaby Bobby McCray could be a bargain in the middle rounds.
Defensive tackle Larry Tripplett, Montae Reagor Josh Williams, David Pugh, Tank Reese
Analysis: Although both starting tackles appear to have the tools needed to succeed in Dungy's scheme, neither has translated his talent into stout play. As a result, the Colts get little rush up the middle and are soft against the inside run. Williams has some skills, but always seems to be injured and may just be too small for the position. Pugh missed 2003 and in his rookie year of 2002 had more penalties than tackles (I know I've said that before, but I still find it fascinating), but has some quickness and determination that could translate to success as a wave tackle, Reese is starting in Europe, but hasn't shown much. Wright also figures here.
Draft strategy: Although I think most Colts fans are begging the team to draft a defensive tackle first, the needs at cornerback and outside linebacker may just be too acute and Polian's determination not to draft a DT in the first round may actually be a pathological thing. Unless there's a prospect who drops, look for the Colts to grab a guy like Tennessee's Mondre Dickerson , who's an amazing physical speciman but a bit of a moron, or his exact opposite in the smart but limited Jeremy Caudill from Kentucky. Either could be avialable in the third round.
Outside linebacker David Thornton, Jim Nelson Cato June, Keyon Whiteside
Analysis: I don't know why I named Nelson a starter here. It was almost arbitrary. It could just as easily be Brackett or Whiteside. I don't think June is quite up to the task yet, but pretty well every other linebacker on Earth has a shot at starting for the Colts. Of course, Thornton is unquestioned on the other side and whoever doesn't win the open spot (even if it's none of them) will get a chance to be a backup and special-teams player.
Draft strategy: Although this is not a great season for outside linebacker prospects, it looks like the Colts will spend a first- or second-round draft pick on one. I don't think darling of the draftniks Jon Vilma will be available when the Colts select with No. 29, and most of the other linebackers are said to be les sthan sure things. Vilma's Miami teammate DJ Williams is the class of the crop and would fit the Colts' scheme well. If he's gone by 29 or the Colts pass on him, there are a number of second-round prospects who are all good players, but each packs a serious flaw: Auburn's Karlos Dansby (jerkwad attitude), Florida State's Michael Boulware (can't penetrate), Oklahoma's Teddy Lehman (can't cover), Georgia Tech's Keyaron Fox (too small) and Nebraska's Demorrio Williams (not strong enough). Still, any of them is a better bet than what they have and the Colts would be silly — or have a plan I don't understand — if they didn't select one of them.
Inside linebacker Rob Morris Gary Brackett, Ben Mahdavi
Analysis: Many fans despise Morris, but he's hardly the defense's weakest link. Brackett was a rookie find (he wasn't even listed on most published draft boards) who excelled on special teams and even earned the team's nickel role after Nelson went down. He may start outside. Mahdavi is playing in Europe, but his best bet to see NFL action is as a long snapper.
Draft strategy: If Brackett is moved outside, the Colts would be smart to acquire a backup (and eventual replacement) for Morris in the middle rounds. Colorado's Sean Tufts has good movement skills and could develop, as could Duke's Ryan Fowler, but both would probably always have to be replaced on passing downs. Should Brackett stay inside, the need is lessened considerably.
Cornerback Donald Strickland, Joseph Jefferson Nick Harper, Darrell Rideaux, Willie Miles, Crance Clemons
Analysis: The Colts are putting a brave face on it, but cornerback is really their weakest position. Last year's starters — Walt Harris and David Macklin — signed elsewhere. The current candidates to start are Strickland, who spent his rookie season at safety after a serious injury, and Jefferson, a big, fast project who has seen very few defensive snaps because of injury and a lack of awareness. Also on hand is restricted free agent Harper, who lost his starting job last year to Macklin, but could be a nice nickel back. The other guys are prospects of varying degrees, although Rideaux is starting in Europe and teams are already throwing away from the diminuitive speedster. He'll almost certainly make the team as a gunner. Clemons has some CFL experience, but is really, really small. Miles has to show more toughness (both physical and mental) before he advances.
Draft strategy: On the plane ride home from the playoff loss, Polian was overheard apologizing to Dungy for the lack of quality defensive backs he'd supplied over the years. Well, he's got the broom out and is sweeping. Gone are Harris, Macklin, Cliff Crosby and Jason Doering, although Crosby may be invited back. Of what's left, I have complete faith in Strickland, if he can stay healthy. I loved him at Colorado, went nuts for him at the 2003 Senior Bowl and thought he developed very nicely as a rookie despite playing two new positions after a severe injury. The rest of the brew, however, are questions. Dungy is talking up Jefferson, but he missed all of last season and when I watched tape of him in 2002, he looked lost. If the good coach is just blowing smoke, look for the Colts to draft a No. 1-quality corner in the first round. The best candidates are Virginia Tech's DeAngelo Hall, South Carolina's Dunta Robinson, USC's Will Poole, Arkansas' Batman Carroll and Oklahoma's Derrick Strait. Hall and Robinson will almost certainly be gone by the time 29 rolls around, and Strait really looked bad getting beat repeatedly at the 2004 Senior Bowl; so Poole and Carroll could well be the choice. Should the Colts grab DJ Williams in the first round or really surprise me with some other pick, there could be some talent in the second round like Strait, Ohio State's Chris Gamble or Montana State's Joey Thomas. Any of the three could develop, but all three are very raw. Even if the Colts draft a cornerback up high, or Jefferson pans out, don't be surprised if they chose another prospect later on, like Arizona's fast Michael Jolivette or North Carolina State's Greg Golden, a converted running back who is all athleticism, but no experience.
Safety Mike Doss, Idrees Bashir Cory Bird, Anthony Floyd, Waine Bacon
Analysis: The Colts got an incredible bargain in the second round last year when they landed Doss (who many expected the Colts to draft in the first round). An exceptionally hard hitter, Doss flies around the field and, although he needs to improve his concentration on deep coverage, generally impresses. Bashir isn't as flashy as Doss, but is very solid when he's not hurting. Bird is a glaring liability in coverage, but earns his way on special teams and can be a force against the run. Floyd is a natural football player who always knows where the ball is, but is let down by his lack of height and speed. Bacon has some tools, but needs to improve his decision-making.
Draft strategy: Although the starters are fine, depth is a big problem as both Doss and Bacon missed game to injury last year, their top reserve is slated to start at cornerback next year and Bird and Bacon are unlikely to step up. Safeties in the Cover-2 must be sure tacklers who can cover a lot of ground in the passing game, so a converted corner like Utah's Arnold Parker or Maryland's Madieu Williams could be available in the middle rounds and would get a lot of work right away.
Kicker Mike Vanderjagt
Analysis: Vandy was perfect on field goal and extra point attempts last year and improved to a decent level on kickoffs.
Draft strategy: The Colts will not draft a kicker, but may sign an undrafted kickoff specialist to groom as a replacement for Vanderjagt. He could come from anywhere — like the CFL — but Penn State's David Kimball seems to fit the job description.
Punter Hunter Smith
Analysis: The Colts showed a great deal of faith in Smith last year and he delivered with a solid year.
Draft strategy: Smith'll get no serious competition this year.