Locking the barn door

The Colts know that the important part of free agency isn't stealing someone else's guy, but keeping your own

A long time ago, in a place far, far away a philosopher-king proclaimed: "When a free agent changes teams, it hurts the team he leaves more than it helps the team he joins."1

He's right. Football teams that have stability in personnel have an edge on their competition. Think about it, things work better when you know exactly what the guy beside you is going to do. Do you think the Peyton Manning-to-Marvin Harrison flying circus would work as well as it does if they didn't obsessively play catch every chance they get?

Free agency messes with that. By giving players a chance to make a better living and GMs a chance to make quick fixes,2 it makes any type of equilibrium almost impossible.

Unrestricted free agents are just that — guys who can make a deal with any team and, unless their old team slaps a franchise tag on them, can leave without any compensation. Think of it this way, an untagged unrestricted free agent is a former member of your team. It has no more claim to him than the other 31 do.

Most unrestricted free agents re-sign with their old team for obvious reasons,3 but a good number of them move on. Many teams with a great deal of salary-cap room can afford to pay a player more than he'd get at home. Do I have to tell you that a big paycheck is a big motivator?4

This year, the Colts have six UFAs. They range from the sublime to the superfluous. In alphabetical order, they are:

CB Cliff Crosby 5'9, 179, 4.44

Find me a Colts fan who doesn't like Crosby, and I'll find you one who hasn't been paying attention for the last few years. Time and again, we've seen Crosby make the impossible special-teams tackle or down a punt on the 1-yard line and marveled at how much this guy loves to play ball. But still, we've also seen him get thrown around like a hackysack by the most mundane receivers or hanging on the legs of some back while he surges for extra yards. With Crosby, you get a guy who knows the game, who plays hard, and is as smart as any ballplayer I have ever seen. But you also get a guy who is simply too frail to help much on defense.5 Picture this: The weasel who chews on Foghorn Leghorn's leg without ruffling his feathers. Mitigating factor: He's a tiny speed-reliant player who'll turn 30 in the first month of the season. Will he be back?: Probably. He's the kind of guy you want on your team. Despite his deficiencies, Crosby's a big contributor on special teams. He's definitely worth a roster spot, but whether he's worth the cap space depends on what his agent demands or if any other team falls in love with him.

CB David Macklin 5'9, 196, 4.52

Macklin shut a lot of mouths this year with some heady play late in the season. After teams started finding Nick Harper's weaknesses, Macklin stepped in and solidified the position. He'll never make the Pro Bowl, is better suited to be a fifth defensive back and simply can not cover anything after the first 15 yards or so,6 but he fits the Cover-2, he can make a nasty hit and he generally knows where the ball is at all times. Picture this: One of those old Volvos that does everything right but just isn't fast or good-looking enough to be any fun. Mitigating factor: The Colts have a relative wealth of young corners and Macklin could be replaced by guys like Donald Strickland7 or Joseph Jefferson without much dropoff. Will he be back?: Most likely. Although fans have been on him, both Bill Polian and Tony Dungy have shown faith in him and he should be available at a reasonable price.

QB Peyton Manning 6'5, 230, 4.90

Do you really need me to tell you that Manning is easily one of the best quarterbacks of his era and, with the improvement he has shown lately, he has a chance to be one of the all-time best. Picture this: Speaking in plain footballese terms, a gift from heaven.8 Mitigating factor: I'm sure someone can find something about Manning to complain about, but they would have to be more anal or cynical than I am.9 Will he be back?: I certainly hope so. Nothing against Brock Huard, but can you imagine him effortlessly throwing five touchdowns in a half? Can you see Manning doing it? Obviously the Colts want to keep him, but it's really up to Manning. Free agent is free agent. Sure they can slap the franchise tag on him, but do you think guys like Bill Parcells, Jon Gruden or any other GM wouldn't give two, three, four or even five first-round picks for him? Would you?10 Unlike other free agents, Manning is the one holding all the cards. Does he like the town? The Irsays? Who knows? But we do know that Manning is that he's a very loyal guy and a very conservative one. He'll stay if it seems like the right thing to do. Let those pleading cards and letters start rolling in now.

LB Jim Nelson 6'1, 234, 4.61

Nelson is a lightweight, fast-moving linebacker who's better in pass coverage and penetration than he is at holding his ground. He can fill in anywhere adequately without much worry and he's a good, heads-up guy on special teams. Picture this: A fine character actor who'll never be a leading man. Mitigating factor: Younger, cheaper Gary Brackett has basically assumed his role as nickel backer and is a much better special teamer. Will he be back?: Maybe. He's a good guy to have around, but only at a low price.

LB Marcus Washington 6'3, 247, 4.65

Is Washington a great linebacker? No. Is he a good one who could very well be great in a year or two? Yes. Fast enough to get past the blockers he's not strong enough to break down, Washington's only real flaws are in play diagnosis, overpursuit and the faulty belief that his arms are strong enough to bring down any runner. But time and experience may well solve those woes. Picture this: Something tempting and seriously flawed that could turn out to be something really special in the long run. Mitigating factor: He's the type of speciman GMs love — big, strong, fast and fearless — and will draw suitors. Besides, he was raw as sushi11 coming out of college in 2000 and has improved markedly every year. He's a free-agent dream, a raw talent that the Colts have molded into a player, so expect other teams to try to reap the benefits.12 Will he be back?: I hope so, but it's no lock. Washington is good enough as it is and is likely to get better, maybe much better. Expect a bidding war and if the price gets too high, the Colts may well have to opt out. And, looking at the crop of free-agent outside linebackers out there,13 Washington is likely to be overvalued.

DT Josh Williams 6'3, 285, 4.90

Fans get down on Williams, but he does a pretty decent job as the third defensive tackle. Well, not a bad job at least. He does get penetration, but plays hot-and-cold and can blown off the line. Picture this: The comfortable furniture you know you should replace, but you never get around to it. Mitigating factor: Defensive tackles are as valuable as diamonds these days and many of those available are nowhere near as good as Williams. If the Colts lose a guy like Williams, they may have to replace him with someone more expensive, not as good and new to the system. Will he be back?: It depends on the market. If some team sees something they really like, it's unlikely the Colts will stand in their way. It all comes down to one thing: Is Williams really better than David Pugh, Brandon Hicks or whatever else they can buy for about the same price?

Teams have a much easier time retaining restricted free agents. Before the signing period starts, each club gets a chance to show the love by tendering (offering to you and me) a contract to the player. The bigger the contract, the more compensation the team gets should the player sign elsewhere. And, even better for the home team, they get a chance to match any offer the player receives. For that reason, not many restricted free agents change teams.

But sometimes they do. Look at last year. The Jets had a nice little receiver in Laveranues Coles who happened to be an RFA. They gave him a nice offer which guaranteed them a first-round draft choice as compensation. They thought that hefty fee would deter potential suitors, but they didn't anticipate the free-spending ways of Daniel Snyder's Redskins. They offered Coles a $14 million signing bonus and the Jets' collective jaw dropped. A week later, Coles was a Redskin and the Jets had a huge hole in their offense and just a late first-round pick to fix it. 14

The Colts have eight RFAs this offseason. By far most important are Rich DeMulling and Ryan Diem, a pair of solid, young and improving offensive linemen. The Colts will not let them go.

S Cory Bird 5'10, 213. 4.60

Watching Bird play on special teams reminds you why you love football. Watching him stuff a running back in the gut makes you stand up and cheer. Watching his in pass coverage makes you want to cover your eyes. Oh yes, it's that scary. If you consider Bird as a defensive back, he's just another guy. If you consider Bird as a wedge-buster and sometime short-yardage or blitz-package linebacker, he's a low-magnitude star. Picture this: A Shakespearean hero — a man full of talent and promise brought down by one tragic fatal flaw. Mitigating factor: Few teams place as much emphasis on special-teams skills as the Colts, so Bird will probably always be welcome in Indy. Will he be back?: More than likely. Teams will watch tapes of Bird tripping over his own feet trying to cover a 350-pounder on a tackle-eligible play and forget just how good the rest of his game is.

TE Joe Dean Davenport 6'7, 268, 5.14

Manning once explained why Reggie Wayne was so wide-open on a play by saying something along the lines of: "well if a team chooses to double-cover Joe Dean Davenport ..." Poor Billy Bob, even his quarterback mocks his receiving skills. It's true, though. He's a bit lumbering and his hands were not made for catching a football. And, despite his size, he's not an overpowering blocker and I've seen him whiff entirely on blitzers. So, is this guy deadweight? Hardly. Although he won't blow anyone away, he is an effective and tenacious blocker once he locks on, especially in the running game. And, although he's not a natural receiver, Davenport oddly seems to be open whenever Manning really needs him and he makes the catch when he has to. And I can think of lots of people I'd rather have to tackle than this monster. Besides, he's popular with players, fans and coaches and seems like a good guy.15 Most important, he's improved every year. Picture this: A countrified version of Lurch from the Addams Family with a nice-guy face. Mitigating factor: Say what you will, but the man is 6'7 with a 30-inch vertical. Will he be back?: Almost certainly. He won't command much on the open market and the Colts, especially Manning, like having him around.

G Rick DeMulling 6'4, 304, 5.24

I thought it was pretty funny last offseason when Colts fans were complaining about DeMulling. Oh, they cried, he's too small, he has no leg drive, he has the arms of a 9-year-old girl. These are people who don't know much about offensive line play or haven't watched DeMulling in isolation. He is, I admit, smaller than many guards but he's very strong, quick and smart. This former college quarterback and linebacker is an intense student of the game who knows what's going on every play and can adapt quickly to changing conditions. It's hard to get any effective stats on guards,16 so I went back in my files to look at DeMulling's numbers from the 2001 combine. Among guards, his 32 reps were second best in the bench press, his 10-yard dash (a good measure of quickness off the line) was second17, he was also second best in vertical jump, long jump and the shuttle and cone drills. Tellingly, he was second to a different player in each category. DeMulling is a draft-day find and developing into a top-flight lineman. You want a disciplined player? In 37 NFL games, DeMulling has been flagged once.18 Picture this: One of those nameless, undersized, interchangeable Denver linemen who make pedestrian backs look like Eric Dickerson in his prime. Mitigating factor: Every once in a while, a real big tackle will brush him aside on passing plays. Will he be back?: Oh yeah. The Colts love this guy and know that other smart teams would be happy to have him. Watch for Polian to make a push to lock him up long term.

T Ryan Diem 6'7, 331, 5.10

Unlike DeMulling, nobody doubted Diem's physical abilities. Perhaps the strongest football player I've ever seen, Diem doesn't get enough credit for his intelligence or athleticism. Although it is true that some hot-rod Leonard Little-type ends can sometimes make the perilous trip around him, it's also true that Diem can destroy his man even more often. A smart kid (he's got a mechanical engineering degree), Diem is already a very good right tackle and can become an excellent one if his football intelligence catches up with his natural skills. Picture this: A large, important piece of equipment. Mitigating factor: There really aren't any. His game has undeniable flaws, but nothing that can't be fixed or tolerated. Will he be back?: Almost certainly. The Colts prize stability on the offensive line and you don't let a lunker like Diem get away. Polian will work overtime to give Diem a cap-friendly long-term deal.

S Jason Doering 5'11, 201, 4.65

Doering is valuable because he's a strong tackler, tough guy who can play any secondary position19 and can be trusted to give his all. The problem is that he's slow by linebacker standards and just can't keep up with even ordinary receivers or backs. Picture this: A versitile, low-paid employee. Mitigating factor: He's usually among the team — and sometimes league — leaders in special-teams tackles. Will he be back?: Probably, but he could be edged out by younger players.

CB Nick Harper 5'10, 182, 4.42

Harper started his career as a starting NFL corner with a bang — he had three picks, a touchdown and five deflections in his first two games. But after a while, quarterbacks began to find the holes in his game and pick on him like a poor little boy with a Barbie lunchbox. Harper probably has the best ball skills and deep coverage ability of all the Colts' DBs. Too bad he plays in the Cover-2, which require corners to be tough guys who understand zones and can tackle well. He lost his job last season to Macklin, but there's still hope that Harper can fight his way back. Picture this: Someone who got famous early, hit the wall and then had to build respect from there. Mitigating factor: He's a threat to score when he gets his hands on the ball, and he adds a bit of swagger to a bunch of guys who need it. Will he be back?: Probably. At worst, Harper is a pretty good third corner and he has the tools to be a pretty good starter if he puts it altogether. The Colts will re-sign him, but probably not to a long-term deal.

RB Dominic Rhodes 5'9, 203, 4.52

When Edgerrin James shredded his ACL in 2001, little-known rookie Rhodes stepped in and looked great. He set all kinds of records and rushed for an honest 1,104 yards despite starting just 10 games. Although fans and the media were a bit optimistic about his abilities,20 he proved to be an excellent No. 2 back. Just as the Colts were sure they had James' first reliable backup, Rhodes destroyed his knee just before the 2002 season. He didn't really get his magic as a runner back and return man until the last quarter of the season, but seems ready to resume his rightful spot behind James on the depth chart. Picture this: A car that's otherwise perfect, but too small to be the only one in your garage. Mitigating factor: If Rhodes does get an outrageous offer, Brad Pyatt could handle kick returns and a No. 2 back could emerge from the roster or the draft. Will he be back?: More than likely. Obviously, the Colts like him a lot, but it's not inconceivable that some incompetent, back-hungry team could make him an unmatchable offer.

FB Donnel Thompson 6'0, 237, 4.83

Thompson is a great special teamer who the Colts projected at outside linebacker until they saw him butcher the position in preseason. So, despite an utter lack of experience, they shifted him to fullback, Before they could see if it would take, Thompson snapped his ACL. Picture this: A one-trick pony. Mitigating factor: You can never have enough special-teams tacklers. Will he be back?: You never know. With Tom Lopienski's emergence as a top fullback, it's unlikely that Thompson would make much of an impact there.21 Still, they kept him on the roster for years when he didn't have a chance to play linebacker, so they must think he's worth the spot for his place on coverage teams alone.

Notes

1 Examples are too numerous to mention. Here's a particularly noteworthy one.

2 Or at least the illusion of one.

3 Most unrestricted free agents have been with their team for four seasons. When you spend four years in a city, you make friends, have a home and asking your buddies to help you move is always a pain. Besides, learning a new system with new coaches and players isn't an easy task.

4 I once left the staff of a very fine daily newspaper's sports section to take a job at a banking magazine because it paid a mere $4,000 a year more. And it let me out at 6 p.m. instead of 3 a.m.

5 At least he knows the basics of tackling. The Colts used to have a corner named Tony Blevins whose tackles were about as effective as a dirty look.

6 He made a lot of enemies by showing up on the wrong side of every highlight reel.

7 Strickland may also figure at free safety if the Colts think Idrees Bashir makes too much money,

8 Or at least New Orleans. Did you know that Manning's playmate growing up was next-door neighbor Trent Reznor from the pretentious juvenile band Nine Inch Nails?

9 Okay, before you say he runs like Manute Bol skates, I should point out his nine career rushing touchdowns.

10 You would so.

11 Thinking about it, I think sashimi is a better simile.

12 I'm reminded here of Ashley Ambrose. The Colts drafted him with the first pick of the second round, lived through his horrific growing pains and when he was finally a good corner, the Saints came and scopped him up.

13 Julian Peterson will be tagged, so it's Washington, Ian Gold and Brandon Short until the sal-cap casualties arrive.

14 Instead they signed retread Curtis Conway and traded the pick to move up and draft a giant slug named Dewayne Robertson.

15 A colleague once told me he was Brandon Burlsworth's best pal — that'd go a long way in Indy.

16 And the stats aren't far from meaningless anyway. You have to watch him play.

17 Who was he beaten by? Fellow Colt Tupe Peko, who may well start at right guard next season.

18 For comparison, Adam Meadows has been flagged 43 times in 103 games.

19 Check the gamebooks, he has started twice at cornerback.

20 Sure he got the yards, but the Colts were 4-3 in games James started in 2001 and 2-7 in games Rhodes started.

21 It's unlikely he would have anyway. After his coversion to the dark side, Thompson said "I know nothing about offense" and "I don't know what a good fullback is." But then, neither did Ivy League-educated Jim Finn and he still has a job.